2010-analyse: Fire scenarioer
- Selv om vi er positive på kort sikt, er det klart når vi ser på verden i dag at det nåværende makromiljøet vil være vanskelig å beholde. I 2010 vil markedet trenge tydelige beviser på at landene som har stått for de mest aggressive mottiltakene under finanskrisen er på stø kurs tilbake til finansiell disiplin. Hvis ikke vil vi fortsette å bygge opp risikoen for statlige gjeldsbomber som kan forstyrre bedringen i det svake næringslivet, skriver Deutsche Bank.
- Og skulle 2010 bli et nytt vanskelig år, er det lite sansynlig at katalysatoren vil komme fra aksjemarkedet eller det kommersielle kredittmarkedet. Det betyr at de makroøkonomiske forholdene vil styre økonomien i 2010, og i realiteten vil dem som har investert i statsobligasjoner rundt om i verden være dem som avgjør skjebnen til andre mer risikofylte investeringsklasser, konkluderer analytikerne.
Deutsche Bank skissere fire mulige scenarioer for den økonomiske utviklingen neste år.
1.(mest optimistisk) "This scenario is one where the authorities have as good a year as they did in 2009. They likely keep stimulus extremely high in the system without there being any noticeable consequences of their actions. Under this scenario we would expect equities to be significantly higher, credit spreads be much tighter but with bond yields only edging slightly higher as the authorities are seen to have firm control of inflation expectations and may even be continuing to buy bonds."
2.(mest sansynlig) "This scenario is the most likely and suggests that we start to see gradual easing off the gas from the authorities but only as it's proved that there is some momentum in the underlying economy. Under this scenario risk assets have a good year but returns are checked to some degree by rising bond yields and less stimulus being injected into markets. A satisfactory year for risk, especially equities, but a mildly negative one for fixed income. Credit investors will likely have to rely on spreads to get positive total returns."
3.(mindre sansynlig) "This is the second most likely scenario overall in 2010 but one that potentially becomes more likely as the year progresses. Here we are likely to see sharply higher bond yields start to disrupt the positive momentum in markets. These higher yields could be either due to Government supply starting to overwhelm demand, or because of inflation fears. It seems unlikely that actual inflation will be a concern in 2010 but it's quite possible for expectations to become unanchored. We would also have to include the potential for a Sovereign crisis somewhere in the Developed world within this scenario. We would note that the higher yields in this scenario are not based on positive growth momentum but by inflation/Sovereign risk."
4. (skrekk-scenarioet) "This is the nightmare scenario of Deflation or in less extreme terms perhaps a double-dip. Given that much of the world is currently still in negative YoY inflation territory it is difficult to completely rule out even if we do live in a fiat currency system and even if inflation is expected to return to positive territory in early 2010. For deflation to be sustained we would probably need an exogenous event to hamper the authorities ability to continue to successfully fight this credit crisis. Such events could be a fresh banking crisis arising, a political backlash encouraging immediate increases in economic regulation or withdrawal of stimulus, or possibly a Government bond/currency sell-off that forces the authorities to aggressively reign in stimulus for fear of a sovereign risis."
Den europeiske iTraxx-indeksen som måler prisen på europeiske Credit-default Swaps:
Her er hele analysen fra Deutsche Bank.
Tidligere analyser:
